LourdesWorld LourdesWorld LourdesWorld
 Wednesday, March 05, 2008
more analysis

More on the primaries:

    As I write this, Clinton has won Ohio and it looks like she will win Texas. What we know now is that after tonight Clinton will be able to say that she has stopped Obama's momentum and that she is well positioned to go on. We also know that despite the wins, she will pick up few, if any delegates on Obama because of the way that delegates are distributed in Texas. Obama will maintain a lead of over 100 delegates.

   We can also make be quite sure that even after the rest of the primaries are concluded, Obama will have a delegate lead over Clinton. It will be very difficult, if not close to impossible, for her to overtake him. We do not know who will have the popular vote margin. It looks like Obama will hold on to the lead that he has there. My guess is that Clinton is well aware that she can not catch up but wants to go to the convention and then argue that because she won the big states that the superdelegates (unpledged) should go to her. Obama will argue that they should support him because he has more pledged delegates. Who wins then? It could be really messy unless someone wises up. As I indicated in the last blog, that should be Clinton. Obama has the better argument and if things don't go his way, he walks and with him probably goes a large segment of the black vote and the Democrats are toast. If Obama gets the nomination,he is more likely to be able to get the Clinton supporters than Clinton would be to get the Obama supporters. The key then would be the Latino vote and white male conservative democratic vote. He would have a tough choice to make for V.P. Does he choose Senator Webb from Virginia or former Senator Nunn from Georgia to get the latter or Governor Bill Richardson from New Mexico to try to help with the Latino vote. If Clinton gets the nomination, she has only one choice and that is to beg Obama to be her running mate.

   Right now, Obama would like to be focusing on McCain and, in fact, has been trying to do so. But, Clinton won't go away and she is providing McCain with a lot of material that he is sure to use against Obama should he become the nominee. Obama will have to begin to focus again on Clinton and may have to do what he has been trying to avoid doing and that is going on the attack. He has really been trying to stay away from that kind of junk but she is forcing his hand. While some pundits think that this fight between Clinton and Obama is democracy at work and is good for the party, I say that is a bunch of hogwash. Nothing good strategically comes from this for the Democrats. One could argue that it gets people enthused but it also gets them angry and that does not go away. One wouild think that the Democrats would learn from history, i.e  the Carter-Kennedy squabble in 1980, but the Democrats prefer a fight rather than a display of common sense.


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Wednesday, March 05, 2008 2:05:49 AM (Atlantic Standard Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [3] | 
Wednesday, March 05, 2008 8:31:35 AM (Atlantic Standard Time, UTC-04:00)
Glad to see I wasn't the only one up late! I agree with your analysis and as a Democrat, I am getting impatient with this rather long, drawn out battle. Tim Russert (who makes politics understandable for me and has been right most of the time about what's going on) said this morning that we may be looking to primaries in June!! What?!? If we have a divided party in June, how on earth will this party be able to come together by November?

Stacey
Sunday, March 09, 2008 9:07:04 AM (Atlantic Standard Time, UTC-04:00)
This whole thing is making Democrats look pathetic!! And I have to say it's more Hillary than Barack. She just won't quit doing whatever she has to do to win, even at the expense of hurting the party!! I agree Dr. Dale, although Barack has tried to take the high road and not stoop to dirty tactics and nasty name calling, he just might have to to counterattack Hillary's nastiness. I was certainly hoping this election would show a candidate that doesn't have to do that, but many are saying he's looking like a wuss taking all this junk from her and not fighting back!! I find it refreshing he hasn't done that up to this point, but if he has to to win, I dunno!! I hope he doesn't have to though, and people will open their eyes and show him the respect he deserves for not doing that thus far!! She just seems so devious to me. She refuses to release tax documents, she really seems like she has something to hide!! That worrries me!! There is so much scandal surrounding her past, I'm old enough to remember that guys!! How could that ever be good for the party, if McCain, which he will, brings all that up? Barack at least hasn't stooped to that level, but now, people are saying he should. Politics is such a dirty game I tell ya!! I was really hoping things would be different this time!! As I learned from doing my research paper in your class, the Latino vote will be crucial in this election!! I would advise any of them to pick a Latino as VP, if they want that vote!! Well, as we all know now that Hillary will do anything and fight till the end to see her, what she sees as her "right" to be president, she is going to fight to the end...even to the detriment of the party!! Sit back folks and get a comfy chair.......this is going to be a long and nasty battle!!
Dawn G.
Monday, March 10, 2008 1:18:03 PM (Atlantic Standard Time, UTC-04:00)
Are Blacks really that likely to vote for McCain? If a slew of Black voters defect from the Democratic party should Obama somehow fail to get the nomination, then we're talking about race trumping beliefs and values at decision-making time, pure and simple. Black first choice, Republican second, white female Democrat third? If that turns out to be the case, I will be more than a bit amused. The sociological implications (and they are legion) are entertaining to contemplate. There's a book to be written if events actually go down that way.

At this point, if Obama doesn't receive the nomination AND win the general election in November, we're in for several years of loud and impassioned minority speculation about conspiracies, mark my words.
Steve
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